Win Model Continued & Free Agent Thoughts

Win Model

In the previous post I came up with the following equation for wins:

The regression equation is
W = 64.6 + 0.0743 FG – 0.0307 FGA + 0.0194 3P + 0.00513 3PA + 0.0397 FT
– 0.0155 FTA + 0.0364 ORB + 0.00278 DRB + 0.00332 AST + 0.0100 STL
+ 0.00308 BLK – 0.0169 TOV – 0.00484 PF – 0.0605 OppFGM + 0.0113 OppFGA
– 0.0275 OppFTM + 0.00692 OppFTA – 0.0378 Opp3PM + 0.00461 Opp3PA
– 0.0105 OppORB + 0.0135 OppDRB + 0.00032 OppAsst + 0.00181 OppSTL
– 0.00751 OppBlk + 0.00544 OppTOV + 0.00214 OppPF

Here I thought I wanted to take it out for a spin.

For 2002 thru 2010 here’s the model calculation:

Win Model

Of note are the top Ten overachievers:

Season

Tm

Lg

G

W

L

Delta

Pred W

2006-07

DAL

NBA

82

67

15

7.0

60.0

2002-03

SAS

NBA

82

60

22

7.0

53.0

2004-05

NJN

NBA

82

42

40

7.0

35.0

2004-05

SOK

NBA

82

52

30

6.9

45.1

2005-06

UTA

NBA

82

41

41

6.2

34.8

2009-10

MEM

NBA

82

40

42

6.1

33.9

2005-06

POR

NBA

82

21

61

6.0

15.0

2004-05

WAS

NBA

82

45

37

5.5

39.5

2005-06

NOH

NBA

82

38

44

5.4

32.6

2003-04

IND

NBA

82

61

21

5.2

55.8

Note The 2007 Mavs at the top of that list

As for the top Ten underachievers:

Season

Tm

Lg

G

W

L

Delta

Pred W

2002-03

TOR

NBA

82

24

58

-8.1

32.1

2007-08

TOR

NBA

82

41

41

-8.0

49.0

2009-10

NJN

NBA

82

12

70

-6.2

18.2

2004-05

CHA

NBA

82

18

64

-5.9

23.9

2007-08

UTA

NBA

82

54

28

-5.9

59.9

2006-07

BOS

NBA

82

24

58

-5.5

29.5

2009-10

PHI

NBA

82

27

55

-5.4

32.4

2001-02

GSW

NBA

82

21

61

-5.3

26.3

2005-06

IND

NBA

82

41

41

-5.1

46.1

2009-10

PHO

NBA

82

54

28

-4.9

58.9

The Raptors are on the list twice and this year’s Suns,Nets and 76ers underachieved in the regular season (I know stop the presses).

For this last season:

Season

Tm

Lg

G

W

L

Delta

2009-10

MEM

NBA

82

40

42

6.1

2009-10

HOU

NBA

82

42

40

4.8

2009-10

CHI

NBA

82

41

41

4.5

2009-10

DAL

NBA

82

55

27

4.0

Memphis, Houston, Chicago & Dallas  (pay attention Free agents) overachieved.

Free Agents

As for the Free Agents, link to updated table below:

Free Agent Cheat Sheet

The summary table of activity look like this:

So the Lakers get the best prize and shore up their biggest weakness. They now roll with above average players thru their 1st six players (Blake,Kobe,Odom,Gasol,Bynum,Artest). So the Lakers have :

Name
Team
Dteam
Position
Minutes
Adj_P48
WP48
Wins
Kobe Bryant
LAL
LAL
SG:89%
2835
0.312
0.164
9.69
Ron Artest
LAL
LAL
SF:100%
2605
0.256
0.064
3.47
Lamar Odom
LAL
LAL
PF:100%
2585
0.542
0.279
15.03
Pau Gasol
LAL
LAL
PF:32% C:67%
2403
0.62
0.31
15.52
Steve Blake
POR
POR
PG:100%
2227
0.247
0.099
4.59
Andrew Bynum
LAL
LAL
C:100%
1977
0.508
0.176
7.25
Sasha Vujacic
LAL
LAL
SF:100%
575
0.237
0.045
0.54
Luke Walton
LAL
LAL
SF:88% PF:11%
272
0.217
0.017
0.1
56.2

56.2 wins under contract (assuming Blake gets Fisher’s minutes) and 4 roster spots. I will now light myself on fire.

Arturo Galletti Written by:

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