The Basics

Hello. For those new to this blog here are the basics. I will keep updating this post in the future as I deem appropriate.

Self-Description (courtesy of

The Basics

All articles use Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] to evaluate player’s performance.* This measure uses three key components to evaluate a player:

  • The player’s per minute box score statistics
  • The player’s team’s per minute box score statistics
  • The average performance at the player’s position (PG, SG, SF, PF or C)

A full explanation can be found here. To give a general scale, an average player has a WP48 score of 0.100. The very best players in the league usually have a WP48 over 0.300. To put this in perspective; an average player who plays a full season at 40 minutes a game would generate around 6.83 wins for their team.  In contrast, a player posting a 0.300 WP48 would generate about 20.5 wins at 40 minutes a game over an 82 game season.

I typically consider 400 minutes in a season a significant sample

I consider:

  • a <.000 WP48 player a waste of a roster spot
  • a .050 WP48 player a bench player
  • a .100 WP48 player a starter
  • a .200 WP48 player a star
  • a .300 WP48 player a superstar

I may also talk about the half-baked notion and Wins over replacement Player (WORP).

The Stats

Stats used

The Rules

  • As long as you’re polite and don’t swear (excesively :-)). I will let you comment.
  • I will make snarky and innapropiate comments. If you laugh great. If not, deal with it.
  • Keep in mind that I will be wrong many many times in this space. I will also be right (hopefully at a higher frequency).
  • Here’s a handy dandy template for Comments:

DYI Snark. We're all about Fanservice

What does it all mean?

I'm not sure but it'll be awesome


  1. Chicago Tim

    51. You overvalue rebounding.
    52. You undervalue players who create their own shot.
    53. You must not watch the games.
    54. You ignore defense.
    55. The box score doesn’t track the right stats.
    56. Anyone who says Player X is better than Player Y must be wrong.
    57. Your results don’t pass my laugh test.
    58. You are obviously wrong for reasons I won’t share.
    59. Wins Produced has been proven wrong in papers that aren’t peer reviewed.
    60. You just hate Player X.

  2. neal frazier

    61. You aren’t/can’t measure heart/chemistry/intangibles/’the it factor’

  3. MikeD

    I am a student writing a paper analyzing NBA free agent movement and hoped you could give me some ideas as to how to find the data I need. I can’t find an email address for you, but please email me at the address I used to post. Thanks.

  4. […] wilds of the net has inspired a response. The gist of the comment was that the Wins Produced model (see here for detail) was as accurate as just using games won last season. Rather than give the typical internet […]

  5. […] or very thouroghly in Stumbling on Wins just buy the book). I’ve covered this before (see The Basics , and here ). In the book (which I recommend you buy ), the finding is that there is diminishing […]

  6. […] moment, the light to something transferable to other people. At this point, I take understanding of the Basics for granted and I really shouldn’t. One of the reasons I started this blog was to take a lot […]

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