Does the Schedule matter and Preseason Wins Produced as of 10/19/2010

No plan of action survives first contact with the enemy-Moltke’s Theory of War

So I was all set to do a full post on strength of schedule. I went to Basketball Reference and downloaded every game played last season. I made a table of last years schedule (click to enlarge).

I worked out the raw productivity of each team for 2009-2010 (go here for the Basics if you’re new here) :

I then worked out the schedule adjustments, made them to the predicted Wins produced for each team ran the correlation and found out accounting for strength of schedule made absolutely no statistically significant difference in the model (that wasn’t already captured). Damn. There’s an hour of my life I’ll never get back.

So as consolation to my readers, I decided to post preseason wins produced numbers. Full Table is here. Top 25 below. Enjoy

Blake Griffin is good (and so is Kevin Love but we knew that already). Jeff Adrien is a big surprise and may be a huge steal. Carmelo is playing motivated (he’s done it before when it doesn’t matter). Allen & the sexy mf himself (West) rocking it for the Celts at the 2. That said keep in mind it’s only the preseason.

 

 

Blake Griffin is really,really good.

30 Comments

  1. Chicago Tim
    10/20/2010
    Reply

    Argh! Why didn’t the Bulls pick up Delonte West?

    • 10/20/2010
      Reply

      Good shooter, good defender, annoys the hell out of Lebron could probably give the Bulls between 15-25 minutes a game of solid ball. I really have no idea. Maybe you needed that roster spot for Big Red :-)
      P.S. I love the fact that the Bulls-Celts is now a for real rivalry

      • Chicago Tim
        10/21/2010
        Reply

        I literally couldn’t watch preseason last night. Scalabrine was all over the place. I looked it up this morning and he played 31 minutes! The Bulls did so many things right this summer. I just don’t understand it. At least he’ll be on the bench for the playoffs.

          • Chicago Tim
            10/21/2010
            Reply

            The worst part may be that Scalabrine is playing better than Gibson, so far. I have to hope that will change (Gibson has been injured). The good news is that Rose doesn’t suck (although he isn’t a star, either), Noah’s wonderful and signed and not going to Denver (yay!), Deng looks good and Asik looks like a potential star. I would love to see more of Noah and Asik playing together.

  2. 10/20/2010
    Reply

    “Damn. There’s an hour of my life I’ll never get back.” I tell my wife this all the time, but you can’t use the “I should have know argument” when you do something for the first time. I mean you’ve given me a post to link back to whenever “Well Wins Produced is nice, but come on some teams have harder schedules” comes up. Thanks for the preseason optimism on Melo. If this raises Melo’s trade value I’m more than happy but as you mentioned, it’s the preseason

    • 10/20/2010
      Reply

      Yeah, turns out the harder schedule is reflected in team production. I have a Melo post brewing but it wasn’t quite ready.

  3. Jimbo (Aus)
    10/20/2010
    Reply

    Arturo, I’ve gotta say that I reckon your site is going to take off pretty soon – your work is amazing, and you’ve got a great way of putting enough humour & real world analysis in there to keep it from being too “deep or boring” (for want of better words). I tell my friends that you are a thinking man’s Bill Simmons. If I could place a bet on you making it big, I would do it in a heartbeat – once again, keep up the good work !

    • 10/20/2010
      Reply

      Jimbo,
      High praise indeed. Thank you.

      I’m a big fan of Simmons style but I was actually annoyed at Simmons today for picking the Wiz at way over but I realized he’s entitled to his opinion (I just think I’m right on this one).

      • Chicago Tim
        10/20/2010
        Reply

        Simmons is a good measure of conventional wisdom, and very funny, but I would never use him as a betting guide or my GM. It’s fun seeing him slowly come to grips with the world of stats, though. If he ever fully embraces it, then you’ll probably have lost your betting edge — so be glad he picked the Wiz at way over!

        Of course, maybe at the end of the year we won’t feel so smart. We’ll see.

        • Jimbo (Australia)
          10/20/2010
          Reply

          The Wizards are an interesting test case, but with so much of their success in the hands of a rookie, and a couple of young bigs who could do anything, I think it would be best to leave them alone for serious analysis of Wins Produced predictions (although I think they will be under as well). The Nets on the other hand are what I think will be a good test – “conventional wisdom” doesn’t think Troy Murphy is going to make much differece… If I were a betting man…. :)

          And as I said, Arturo is a THINKING MAN’s Bill Simmons…

          • 10/21/2010
            Reply

            Jimbo,
            Even if Wall is extraordinary there’s way to much to overcome there.In fact, I’m almost convinced that the Wizards organization knows this and is trolling their fanbase (what are the odds of Thorton, Armstrong, Nick Young, Yi and Adam Morrison showing up on your team by accident). The Nets and the Cavs are definitely intriguing as well (if you were into that sort of thing).

            Thinking man’s Bill Simmons? Does that mean I need to start referencing Wu-Shu flicks and Star Trek:TNG (in lieu of Karate Kid flicks & 90210). Wait, aren’t I halfway there?

            • Jimbo (Australia)
              10/22/2010
              Reply

              Just looking at the Wizards salary commitment, if they can somehow get Arenas off their books, they are in a great position to re-build through the draft over the next couple of years.. the question is how will they sell it to their fans when things don’t go well this season (expectations are high) ??

  4. 10/20/2010
    Reply

    Cool – I’ve been calculating EWP for the Raptors’ preseason numbers, but here’s the real thing! One thing I noticed though: you haven’t adjusted for exact positions, am I right? Because when I post a link to this I’m going to have to explain why the numbers are different. Another observation: EWP seems to underrate everyone.

    Interesting to see Kleiza and Jack so high – and among players who have played more than 60mins, Bargnani is only 12th worst! Yay!

  5. Evanz
    10/20/2010
    Reply

    Adrien!!! (They were deciding between Adrien and Aaron Miles for the last roster spot. Miles was waived today.)

    • Raspu10
      10/20/2010
      Reply

      Miles looks better on paper than I thought he did on the court, but I’m ok with that. Monta is looking way better than last year (sorry, some dude) – better than Dorell or Reggie. But with a .500 WP48 on his 26 minutes, clearly Jeremy Lin can’t play at all. /snark

  6. some dude
    10/20/2010
    Reply

    I figured strength of schedule largely doesn’t matter, except in years where one conference is really awful and the other isn’t.

    I think if there’s any data to be gained from scheduling, it’s more likely related to top 8 minutes players ages and # of back to backs as well as the effect of long road trips on non-elite teams.

    • 10/21/2010
      Reply

      Sd,
      And that’s only important if you we’re looking at individual game results and gaining an advantage in calling those. Don’t know why you’d want to do that :-)

  7. Jeff
    10/21/2010
    Reply

    I love everything about this post…except your use of Comic Sans in your Excel table. For shame.

  8. […] Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Amir Johnson are among the top 25 players in terms of Wins Produced for the preseason, according to Arturo Galletti. Of course, Jack and […]

  9. […] strength of schedule will nave to be reduced by multiplying it by 24/82 . This is why I discounted strength of schedule in a previous post and while this is generally a good rule of thumb this upcoming season is the exception to the […]

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