“. . . be resolved that duty is heavier than a mountain, while death is lighter than a feather.”—First Precept of the Imperial Rescript to Japanese Soldiers and Sailors
Duty. That’s a heavy, heavy word. I made a promise to myself and to readers of this blog that I would build a model to forecast Win totals for the NBA season using Wins produced (go here for the Basics behind it all). There were a lot of factors to consider:
- Projecting veteran player performance (the veteran model)
- Projecting for rookies who played in college (the rookie model).
- Projecting for everyone else using the preseason
- Rosters, Minute allocations and Injuries (wait for it)
- The difference between conferences (see here)
Picks are due. Let’s get on with it. This Version accounts for everything.
The 2010-2011 Build Preseason Final (as of 10/25/10)
There are 435 players currently on NBA rosters. I’ve done projection (accounting for age,performance,injuries & depth charts) for 435 players. Every single one. The full build is here.
- Blake Griffin was adjusted to the high end of his projection based on his pre-season performance. Didn’t help the clippers much.
- Durant and Westbrook were projected based on the last 41 games of last year.
- I went high on CP3 minutes, low on Yao minutes based on the Rockets minutes restrictions, low on Oden and Aldridge minutes, I also gave Scalabrine playing time.
- I used ShamSports combined with ESPN for depth charts. Some teams (I’m looking at you Indiana) was kinda like throwing darts at random.
The final preseason 2011 projection looks like this:
So with the Miller injury, Portland is my number one overall seed for the season and yes I am predicting the Wizards to win only ten games. Shocking I know :-).
I previously posted the win totals vs the lines (see here). Let’s update that now.
Do with that info what you will but the top 4 looks very inviting. Every team in green is also attractive (the rockets have keep away written all over them).
As for Awards picks? Here you go:
So now like Clippers fans, I can await the sweet release of death. Enjoy, discuss, comment and as always:
Oh and by the way:
Note: I had to make a correction so final predictions are here