In a hurry today, so this’ll be quick (but I hope great fun).
As reader of this blog, you might now that I’ve been playing around with Win Produced game splits and adding in defense. The driver for this has been the fact that currently Wins Produced divides defense up at the team level for all stats that are not in the boxscore (see the Basics for detail). So I have been trying for a while to get at this. And it’s been hard but we’re making it work.
This is revision #2 (powered by NerdNumbers) which is as good as it’ll get until we get play by play data (which Andres is working call it super NerdNumbers powers) . What I’ve done is look at Player data for the last ten games for each team and map how each opponent did by position. I’ve also accounted for the effect of altitude,rest and home and away. That looks like so:
How do you read this? Let’s give two examples. Devin Harris and Jordan Farmar get worked by opposing Point Guards as raw productivity (ADJP48) for their opponents goes up a straggering 63%. By contrast, Kobe Bryant is an excellent defender as his opponents raw productivity (ADJP48) drops 28% (I did just throw up a little in my mouth thanks for asking).
So what happens when I work out WP48 for the last 10 games adjusting for position based defense? And then use my nifty points equations (last seen here) to work out point margin contributions? And then work this out for all player in the league and rank them by value? And when I stop with the questions and just post the damn table :-)? This:
Note: I was off by a factor of two initially on some of the point stuff (Long explanations here, short waht is I used the sum not the average fuction in excel). Fixed now (As always your refund is in the mail). Player Value last ten games (for all players >100 MP as of 12/21/10 Take 2)
The big winner?