“Vegeta, what does the scouter say about his power level?” -Nappa
“It’s OVERR NINE THOUSAND!!!!!!!” -Vegeta
“What ? There’s no way that can be right!!!!!” -Nappa
Akira Toriyama’s Dragon Ball (ドラゴンボール, Doragon Bōru)
He broke my damn spreadsheet.
But I’m getting ahead of myself, let me give you some nice exposition first before we get to the lead.
(Standard Disclaimer: if you’re new, welcome, please be aware that we are powered by NerdNumbers and if you have questions you’ll need to go to the Basics before asking questions, if you don’t the narrator reserves the right to be snarky with you in the comments section):
I was planning a routine post where I looked at the Wins per 48 for all players in the NBA with the twist that I wanted to break it down month by month. The point of this exercise was to look for players whose play is improving or dropping as the season was going along. My intent was to break it down along the lines of the roster by roster breakdown of my last post:
That’s a roster by roster breakdown by minutes played of the level of play for each team. For players by month I though i’d do:
- Elite (>.400 WP48) which I used previously here
- Superstar (>.300 WP48 & <.400 WP48)
- Star (>.200 WP48 & <.300 WP48)
- Starter (>.100 WP48 & <.200 WP48)
- Bench (>.000 WP48 & <.100 WP48)
- D-Leaguer (<.000 WP48)
And split the season into thirty day chunks.I figured it would be a fun exercise to see some trends, get to do some cool visualizations and it would be a cool followup to my ongoing series of alternative ways of looking and breaking down the NBA MVP race.
The index for that series is here (and for some weird reason I keep coming up with a different answer 🙂 ) :
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/most-important-players-for-the-season-so-far/ (CP3 get’s the myhtical ASLS MVP vote)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/best-players-right-now-and-defense-adjusted-wp-part-2/ (KG gets a nod)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/opponent-wp48-and-opponent-adjusted-wp48-for-2010/ (The King takes a bow)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/12/27/the-mvp-race-so-far/(The King makes it two in a row)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/a-series-of-good-nights/ ( A Split Decision for the King , CP3 and K-Love)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/01/13/a-nightly-pattern-of-behavior ( Another Split Decision for CP3 and K-Love)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/01/22/the-100-best-games/ (K-Love gets this one in a landslide)
- http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/02/04/a-starry-night/ (K-Love does it again )
So what happened? Well, once I crunched the numbers I had to change my strategy. You see, one player broke the system. One player went out and put in a legen- (Wait for it)
-dary performance. The following table is by month and everyone get’s points according to their WP48 level (-1 for -.100 to 0, 0 for o to .100, 1 for .1oo to .2oo , 2 for .200 to .300 etc.)
His name is Kevin Love. .510 WP48 in the Last Month. That crazy son of a gun broke my spreadsheet. He’s on pace for a top ten Wins Produced Season right now.
So the MVP Analysis Tally so far is
- K-Love 3 2/3 votes
- Lebron 2 1/3 votes
- CP3 1 2/3 votes
- KG 1 vote
And Kevin Love takes the lead (and all your rebounds).
So underrated superstar on an inferior Minnesota team, where have I heard that one before? Sorry Minnesota fans but I hope history does repeat itself in this case.
There are some more interesting tales in this table. But that’s what tomorrow is for.