Who players are now

I was curious.

Famous last words.

I wanted to see how player performance had changed as the season went along. Who’s better now? Who’s worse? Which teams are allocating their minutes well? Which are doing it poorly?

I of course decided to make a graph.

The rules are simple:

  • All players listed are currently on Rosters and playing
  • Use Wins Produced numbers (go see the Basics for the explainy)
  • The comparison will be between the full season and the last 30 days.
  • WP48 Levels are adjusted using a minimum level of 5 minute per game for team for period.
  • Game samples are for Games where player played more than 10 minutes
  • Players are categorized as follows (categories are my take on players place on championship team):
    • <=.000 WP48 (Scrub)
    • .000 to .100 WP48 (Bench)
    • .100 to .200 Starter
    • .200 to .300 (Star),
    • .300 to .400 (Superstar)
    • >.400 (Legend)

Here’s the table in question:

You see the big news? I know, I know it’s a lot of information so you may have missed it. Let’s simplify by looking at Stars for the season and above:

While Boston is ailing, Miami is lacking at the 4 and 5 , Chicago and LA have emerging players coming to the fore. Omer Asik is killing it.

Andrew Bynum though is going to a different plane. This is rarified Shaq, Hakeem, David Robinson air. If he remains healthy and this is always a big if with Bynum, the Lakers will be almost impossible to beat in the West.

Damn it all.


  1. Chicago Tim

    Yes, and because of Bynum, Kobe is now back in the hunt for MVP.

  2. 3/21/2011

    I doubt Kobe will ever win another MVP, but I’m very excited about Andrew Bynum’s play as of late.

  3. 3/21/2011

    Interesting point about Reggie Evans – he will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Raptors have a roster filled with bigs. While he is a fan favourite and seems to like it in Toronto, I don’t think it’s likely that he will return next season.

    So…which playoff team is going to pick him up?

  4. E. J.

    You have made me sad.

  5. Some Dude

    kobe isn’t in the MVP conversation, not sure where that came from. A healthy Bynum is a must for a 3rd title.

    Reggie Evans is nothing but a bench player. I don’t see how anyone could possibly disagree. Toronto has been better with him hurt or not on the floor than on the floor. His splits are worse than Bargnani and Bargnani is terrible.

      • EvanZ

        Arturo, I want you to be honest here. Would you replace Garnett with Reggie Evans right now? How about Kevin Love? Kevin Garnett is only a “start”. Those other two guys are “legends”.

        • 3/25/2011

          Evans has a very small sample size going for him and he’s on a lousy team (so I’d expect his numbers to drop to his historical avg. with larger sample size on better team) . Historically he hovers at a .200 level (and the same if I push out to his last 2000 minutes played). I’d love him as an inexpensive sixth man on a team with enough scoring and as a guy who I could play with to see if he could be my starter. Garnett is better across the board.

          KLove vs. KG is a much tougher answer. Both are extreme outliers. What people are missing is that their skill sets are not close to the same. KG is a defensive/rebounding presence first. KLove is a rebounder/efficient shooter. We really don’t know if KLove can play D (I have data that says he’s ok). We’ve seen the best of KG. KLove is 22 and the sky’s the limit for him. At this moment I would not switch them . At the start of the 2011-2012 season? In a heartbeat.

          The big difference is that I expect KG to revert to form come playoff time and that all the data I’ve looked suggests that there’s a period of adjustment for the playoffs. So I’d expect KLove to struggle in his first playoffs. Throw in the D and KG comes out ahead.

          • EvanZ

            Ok, very reasonable.

    • EntityAbyss

      Is there consistency year-to-year with team splits? What is the y-t-y correlation?

    • siggian

      Reggie Evans?

      Toronto has been much better with Reggie playing. It’s not coincidence that the Raptors defense went from being merely bad to awful when he went down.

      Sure, on a good team, he’s a bench player. He starts on the Raptors because he provides some defensive leadership and rebounding that the other starters seem to need.

    • 3/23/2011

      Not true – Raptors played much better at the beginning of the season when Evans was healthy. I could back this up with numbers, but just go look at point differential and record.

      • Some Dude

        What? Evans splits are horrible. Before he came back:

        Offense: 102.1
        Defense: 113.7

        Without him the D has been the same, but the offense is 107.2.

        Their record at the time was 6-9 but all their wins sans 1 was against teams playing worse than them to start the season. And again, in those 15 games the Evans on the floor was outscored by 105 points!

        Evans splits prove my point. he’s been bad on a bad team.

        • 3/26/2011

          Reggie Evans got injured on 11/26. He had played about 27.5 mins/game, and the Raptors record was 6-10. They scored 100.5 pts/game and allowed 102.3 pts/game, so their unadjusted point differential was -1.8. The teams they had beaten? CLE, @ORL, @PHI, HOU, BOS, and PHI.

          Without him, the team went 11-36. They scored 99.1 pts/game and allowed 106.5 pts/game, so their unadjusted point differential was -7.4.

          I don’t know where you get your stuff, Some Dude.

  6. Some Dude

    Agree. He’s useful in a bench role where he can play garbage man and go against other team backups.

    If he’s starting for you, you’re not going far. It is too easy to defend him and score on him in the playoffs for 30mpg.

  7. EntityAbyss

    Btw, for Miami, Haslem is yet to come back. Also, Haslem is yet to come back. Yea, I said it twice. Btw, Haslem is yet to come back. Idk how a healthy Bynum makes the Lakers past San Antonio, but ok. What makes you think Bynum will Stay that way?

    • Some Dude

      Might be moot as Duncan will supposedly play hurt in the playoffs.

      I don’t think the Spurs are as good as people think they are. They’d been very fortunate in close games and have outperformed their expected wins. I think they’re now 4th in point differential.

      And Haslem may not come back or be mobile if he does. until we see what he can do, I don’t see the point in bringing him up. And he wasn’t having a huge impact earlier in the season, anyway.

      All Bynum needs to do is make some easy baskets, challenge shots, play solid post up D, and rebound. If he does that, Lakers should be fine. Don’t need him having 20 & 16 games.

  8. entityabyss

    The spurs are now 4th in point differential? Who are the top 4? Anybody knows where I can find out?

  9. Some Dude


    3rd now. I made my comment before the Laker game got added in from last night.

    Spurs were over 7 a few weeks ago. They’ve been steadily dropping (as has Boston). Chicago has risen a lot the past 2 weeks. Lakers have remained steady and Miami is at the same they seemed to be quite variable.

  10. […] After Jose Calderon shut it down, a late season flurry by Bayless prompted some fans to opine that he had emerged as a key part of this team going forward. There was even some premature talk that Bayless could be the full-time starting point guard and a high lottery pick like Kemba Walker could actually serve as his backup next season. I won’t go quite so far as to anoint Bayless the 2011-12 starter, but I won’t feel as bad if Leandro Barbosa declines his player option or is dealt at the trade deadline next season. The bottom line is Bayless showed tremendous improvement after joining the Raptors and Arturo Galletti’s analysis backs that up. […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *