Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/12/2011

And another one bites the Dust.

Here’s the series numbers:

Still not quite ready to make my picks but I would like to congratulate the Bulls for finishing second in the Eastern conference.

What are you saying playa?

Gibson and Noah were excellent but the Bulls managed to play themselves into a series and not a rout with a bad Hawks team (that’s what fast can sometimes do for you). The MVP should not be getting outplayed by Jeff Teague and Joe Johnson. And before any Hawks fans get offended, Atlanta got outscored by about 4 points a game in the playoffs. Tougher opposition awaits in the next round.

Here come the Superfriends

First the links:

Then the intro & background.

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (will be updated tomorrow)

Bulls-Hawks Game 6

I’m betting the Bulls are real glad the Carlos Boozer is finally back from that injury. Wait, you mean he’s been playing all this time? Derrick Rose had a good game as well to close out the Hawks on the road.  For the Hawks a simple thought : regression to the mean is a bitch.

Now the big question is pending. Who comes out of the East?

Remember Kids, Batman should trumps Flash or does he?

You are going to have to wait and see.


  1. Chicago Tim
    May 13

    I’ll admit you have me more worried than all the mainstream pundits picking the Heat (who also predicted the Lakers would beat the Mavs). But I can’t help thinking everyone is overestimating the significance of beating the Celtics. Towards the end of the season the Celtics just were not good, and with Rondo injured and Shaq out against Miami, they were again not good. And I also think you may be holding a grudge against Rose for winning the MVP award that blinds you to the brilliance of the Bulls’ defense and the weaknesses of the Heat.

    But I’ll admit that your confidence has me worried. I just have to remember that you have been wrong about some things, both in the regular season and the playoffs. So we’ll see. At least I know that America is rooting for the Bulls. And this should just be the beginning of a long and exciting rivalry.

    • CT,
      It’s really,really close actually. The team composition is what worries me for the Bulls. The Bulls have no bad players on the court but the Heat can go short on rotation and trump that. Playoffs favor top heavy teams and penalize deep ones. If they spent their minutes and possessions efficiently the Bulls should crush the Heat but Derrick Rose’s lack of experience is telling and he will lose his mind more than once in that series. When he plays poorly in the regular season, the rotation helps the Bulls, in the playoffs they pay full price. You can do that with bad teams but the Heat will kill you (particularly since they can pound Lebron,Wade,Bosh for 45 a night).

      A similar but worse thing happens if it’s OKC-Dallas. OKC would have a rough go of it if Russ didn’t lose his mind occasionally and if they had homecourt. Throw those factors against them and I think Dallas rolls:|1610612742,1610612760;season=r

      Still need to do the final crunching though.

      • Chicago Tim
        May 13

        Did you notice that Hollinger made a similar point about rotations in the playoffs when predicting the Heat would win in six? I wonder if he has been reading your posts!

        Yes, the Bulls have a team built for the regular season, while the Heat have a team built for the playoffs. At least that’s the theory. But the Heat also have holes at the two most important positions, point guard and center. And the Bulls do have home court advantage.

        So, yeah, it’s close.

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