Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/25/2011

I pretty much told you so.

OKC was not coming back from the Game 5 Collapse.

Particularly when Dirk Nowitski has officially become the third player in my lifetime who I’m stunned when he misses in the last 5 minutes of a game (Bird, Jordan and now Dirk).

Let’s start with the series wrap first:

Kidd and Harden are the team MVP’s for the series by the numbers but the numbers don’t quite tell the tale for Dirk. We have to consider the fact that if Collison had popped Dirk with a hockey stick to the head as he was going for a Layup there’s a better than 50% chance he’d have gotten called for the charge.

Russell Westbrook did kill OKC but let’s get some perspective. He carried them against LA last Year. He’s a 22 year old point guard who looked inexperienced against Jason Kidd and made some dumb calls. He’ll figure it out soon enough

Let’s get to it.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated typically the day after)

The Box-score follows:

Mavs-Thunder Game 5




Five years ago, if you told me on of the the Seven Seconds or Less Suns would help lead the Mavs back to the Finals, Shawn Marion would not have been my first choice. It took a team effort for the Mavs to get it done as the Thunder played a complete game (except for the insanity with Maynor waving everybody off to go ISO on Dirk but at this point with a Scotty Brooks team that the rule not the exception).

Congrats to the Matrix for getting to his first Finals.

For some reason this came to mind.

Should have, Would have, Could have.....

11 Comments

  1. EntityAbyss
    5/26/2011
    Reply

    Arturo, I don’t understand how you have the Heat as only slight favorites. You expected Chicago to beat Dallas in 7 games and Miami is playing better than Chicago with their new, stronger line-up. Shouldn’t they be even bigger favorites than Chicago would’ve been?

    I know Dallas swept an LA team that didn’t show up and beat the thunder in 5 (although james harden fouling out is probably the big reason it didn’t see 7 games), but I can’t see how Miami is only the slight favorite.

  2. 5/26/2011
    Reply

    EA,
    At this point, I’m more inclined to believe the simpler explanation that Dallas is who the post all star break numbers say they are. Those numbers would have them favored over everybody. However if you throw in Miami’s changed lineup, the numbers should be about even and HCA wins out.

    I really don’t get the reluctance to believe that Dallas is just plain out great. I really have no clue how else they could illustrate that fact.

    • ilikeflowers
      5/26/2011
      Reply

      I think that Dallas is a great team, but we know who they are from the season long sample. The mostly healthy Heat on the other hand look like who we expected them to be with their current lineup – a 70+ win team. Is Dallas really good enough to beat the 96 Bulls or the 2008 Celtics? I think that this Heat lineup is on that level. If the numbers say that Dallas is an all-time great team then fine, but is that really what they say?

      • 5/26/2011
        Reply

        ILF,
        They kinda do. This is a Bulls- Suns, Bulls-Sonics scenario. If Dallas or Miami fully healthy they’re easily the best team record wise in the regular season.

        Dallas beat an underrated Portland team that went 20-10 after the ASB. They swept the healthy two time defending champs in a rout. They beat a loaded up and coming team in the Thunder in five games. Their best player is putting up ridiculous offensive performances while getting fouled every play.

        I’m swayed that these are two great teams and I expect this to be an even series. I expect Dirk to steal a game that Dallas has no right to win. I expect Lebron and/or Wade to do the same. I think coin toss in seven.

        If it is Miami. They haven’t closed the deal as of yet ( I expect them to but it’s a fact).

    • 5/26/2011
      Reply

      I know what won’t help illustrate that Dallas “is just plain out great” – losing the NBA Finals in 5 games.

  3. 5/26/2011
    Reply

    That picture is creepy.

    Dallas is very good. I think they might have enough perimeter defenders to hold Miami in check. Ought to be a great series.

    • 5/26/2011
      Reply

      Who are these perimeter defenders that will hold Miami in check, exactly? And are these the same defenders that resulted in Rick Carlisle playing so much zone?

  4. Jimbo (Oz)
    5/26/2011
    Reply

    The only thing creepy about that picture is Cuban – he looks like he just got out of the asylum !!

  5. […] the Mavs this playoffs.  But the most productive player on the team has been Jason Kidd (check out Arturo’s blog for more on this topic). And when we look at Kidd’s career, this should not be […]

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