Advanced Playoff Box Scores for 5/26/2011

“What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?”
-Adam Smith

This one needs some theme music.

I feel a debt was owed. Let’s pay this baby off, my word after all is my bond.

16 Teams, 30 Nights and a fantastic floor show.

After all that only two remain. Let’s talk about the surprising end of the last conference finals.

And on the final night before the Finals, Lebron joined Dirk in the pantheon of  the soul crushing playoff performances.

The Career leader and Chairman of the Board

Chicago again looked like they had control after 4o minutes and again failed to convert. Miami was fantastic in overcoming a 15 point lead in a three minute span.  Much like OKC they have to be thinking what the hell just happened.

We learned a few things in this series:

  1. Bulls beat the crap out of Miami in Game 1. Coach Spo adjusted his game plan completely. Coach Thibbs never countered. Miami is well coached.
  2. Lebron is an all world defender who can drive an opposing player to drink and if he can actually get a post game we will be talking of him as the Greatest of all time.We knew that already though ( I just  might need to revisit one of the classics then)
  3. Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller were vital to the Heats chances of winning the title.
  4. Inexperience kills in the Playoffs. Derrick Rose really showed that he lacks those playoff reps. When Miami put Lebron on Rose, Rose should have licked his lips, put his head down and drawn contact . I think of Jordan, Wade or Kobe in that situation and I see a smirk on their faces and a thought bubble with the words : “I’m gonna foul this M#$%F#%#er out”. He’ll get there (he’s 22, people) but he clearly is not the MVP. Thibbs again did not help.
  5. A full health Miami team is unexpected and fantastic.

Let’s get to that recap:

Lebron is the clear Wins Produced MVP for this series. Bosh sits at number 2 and Boozer (yes Carlos Boozer) at three. I would argue that Boozer’s dramatically bad defense is underrepresented by the numbers. Wade was bad for him and so was Bosh. Rose however was catastrophic and looked every inch the 22 year old Point Guard (another recurring conference finals them right Russ?).

The return of Mike Miller was the true difference maker for Miami in a series where the scores were actually tighter than the 4-1 end indicates.

I could say that bodes ill for Dallas or I could say it’s not quite enough. But I won’t.

At least not yet.

Let’s get to it.

Links now:

Boxscore Explanations in gray:

I’m going to be posting an advanced Box Score during the playoffs after every game.

It contains:

    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Possesion and Play stats:
      • Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers
      • Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):
      • Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
      • True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
      • Points per Shot = Pts/FGA
      • Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:
      • Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
        • OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player
      • Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:
          • DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.
      • Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
      • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
      • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.

Parking Lot items :

  1. Do DPM based on average points per play for opponent.
  2. Add other advanced metricss (PER,Win Shares,EZPM, etc.)

Remember kids, my tastes are reflected in this (and they may not line up with yours).

I encourage you to comment and make suggestions as the eventual goal is to build an automatic version of this.

The raw data is here as a google doc (updated Now)

The Box-score follows:

Bulls-Heat Game 5


The three best players for the Bulls were Noah, Brewer and Thomas.  They all played less than 28 minutes. Bad Job by the Bulls of optimizing their resources (I’m not even going to get with their tendency to shorten the playbook to Iso-Rose ). Contrast that with the Heat getting the absolute max from their stars and you see why it ended the way it did.

As for the end of that game, Lebron was so unreal that the next image comes to mind.

He's Lebron. Basically, Run.

The interesting bit is that their opponent brings this image to mind:

Daleks Dirk, Jason, Matrix, Jet, Chander and Boricua. Relentless and not running.

And in true sci fi tradition, this one is to be continued in the wrap-up and the preview.

Coming to you this fine Memorial day weekend.

Because I am definitely a madman with excel.

Here’s a nice little bonus:

and here’s another:

and one final one:

4 Comments

  1. Chicago Tim
    5/28/2011
    Reply

    Okay, you are getting me excited about the Finals when I didn’t think I could bear to watch.

    • 5/28/2011
      Reply

      CT,
      Next stop everywhere ( the Doctor’s theme) could get a corpse excited (and not just captain Jack).

      Hard not to get excited about the quality of ball we’re about to see. What happen to the Bulls kinda had to happen . They’ll grow from it, I think. You do realize we’ll be cheering for the Daleks right?

  2. EntityAbyss
    5/28/2011
    Reply

    Looking at both teams, this looks a lot like Miami in 6. Yea, Dallas has a great option in Dirk, but I don’t see how anyone else (besides chandler) doesn’t remain in check, if not completely lokced up. I know miami fans may be hard to stand, but I just can’t see it. I like Dirk, and I see that Dallas wins at 3 positions, but when miami closes out with that big line-up, they seem unbeatable. For as good as Dallas is offensively, having Dirk, defensively, they’re not so amazing. I’m excited about the finals though.

    • 5/28/2011
      Reply

      EA,
      I think you underestimate Kidd’s one hundred years of experience running an offense. Dallas will get their open looks.

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