2015 NCAA Big Man on Campus

Diane: How would you characterize “The Great Gatsby”?
Thornton Melon: He was… uh… great!
– Back to School

I always cover the NCAA a certain way. I’m not a huge fan of the college game. I’ve said this before.

However, I love the draft. I love the idea of mapping and projecting players. So every year, I gather up all the data and evaluate all the players for the NBA draft. I also take the time, incidentally, to do a rather successful tournament projection.

This is great but it doesn’t really provide a full picture.

This year, I wanted to go further. This year I decided, I was going to try to do metrics and Ratings for every single player and every single game for the current NCAA season. I wanted to do what no one else had done.

I wanted a full, comprehensive and interactive view of all NCAA players.

It wasn’t easy. Excel bitched the whole damn way. The first build crashed catastrophically three hours in. I persevered.

At 2:00 am eastern time last night, I had it and now so do you.

The NCAA Interactive Ratings for 2014-15 (Which you can select dates, players, conferences,etc.)

The 2014/15 NCAA Player Ratings

Everything there follows the same rules as the NBA metric (see here). Or as explained visually next.

Player Metrics 1Player Metrics 2

I don’t have a lot of time (building an NCAA tourney model don’t you know) but I wanted to give you a flavor of the tool. Let’s take it for a spin and look at the 3 best players with greater than 700 minutes played in the NCAA this year.

The Top players look like so.

NCAA Dash 1

 

Let’s go 1 by 1 for the Top 3 (as I said time is short!). Graphically!

#1

Player Ratings

Towns is the best player on a historically great Kentucky team. This should not be surprising. The draft projections this year will be insane.

 

#2

Player Ratings (1)

Who? Ochefu is 6’11” junior who rates as the best player on the second best team in the country (Villanova). He looks to be a Kenny Faried type. This is a good thing.

#3

Player Ratings (2)

The seven footer from Wisconsin is only below par at offensive rebounding. Given his three point prowess? Perfectly reasonable. I’d comp him to Kevin Love based on the numbers.

My gut tells me this next draft will be amazing.

More on this to come of course.

-Arturo

3 Comments

  1. brgulker
    March 17
    Reply

    Really been looking forward to this. Kinda surprised Kaminski is as high as he is given his age (he’s relatively old), but there’s no doubt he’s been a fantastic college player this season.

    • arturo.galletti@gmail.com
      March 18
      Reply

      Ben,
      This is straight up production. When I do my draft model, I expect Kaminski should fall relative to Towns and Okafor because of their comparative ages.

      I also know that players on staked teams are typically undervalued so Towns stats are SUPER crazy. Kinda like Anthony Davis’s

  2. Andrew Sutton
    March 17
    Reply

    BRGULKER,
    While he is a senior, Kaminsky is projected to be more ready to contribute given his age. Karl Towns is sophomore aged freshman due to him having a late birthday. This draft looks to be the deepest draft in a while.

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